Atlantic hurricane map

Tuesday, Jan 15, 2019

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

  1. 000
    AXNT20 KNHC 151704

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1204 PM EST Tue Jan 15 2019

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.


    The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N16W
    to 05N22W. The ITCZ continues from 05N22W to the coast of Brazil
    near 00N48W. A secondary ITCZ extends from 03N19W to 03S28W to
    03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along both ITCZ's
    between 26W-40W.


    A 1029 mb high pressure centered north of the basin extends across
    the area with moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds prevailing.
    A surface trough is analyzed over the west Gulf from 28N97W to
    21N96W. No significant convection is present across the basin at
    this time.

    High pressure will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through
    Friday. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will set up across
    the western Gulf by Friday night ahead of a strong cold front
    forecast to reach the NW Gulf by late Saturday. Gale conditions
    are possible behind the front.


    In the upper levels, a ridge is in control of the Caribbean, with
    subsidence covering the entire basin. Latest scatterometer data
    indicates gentle to moderate east winds across eastern and
    southern Caribbean, while fresh to strong east winds are off the
    coast of Colombia south of 13N between 72W-77W. Scattered showers
    are possible over the northwest Caribbean along the coast of the
    Yucatan Peninsula and adjacent waters mainly south of 20N and
    west of 86W.

    Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the south-central
    Caribbean Sea through Sat night. Moderate to locally fresh trade
    winds will prevail elsewhere.


    A cold front extends south across the west Atlantic from 31N60W
    to 24N77W. Scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh northerly
    winds behind the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
    extend 90 nm ahead of the front mainly north of 26N. To the east,
    a surface trough extends from 26N55W to 23N56W. Another trough is
    to the east, extending from 32N45W to 26N48W. Last trough is
    analyzed over the east Atlantic from 27N30W to 23N17W. Scattered
    showers are noted along all the troughs.

    The cold front over the west Atlantic will reach from 27N65W to
    the southern Bahamas on Wednesday, then stall and weaken from
    26N65W to Turks and Caicos on Thursday. A reinforcing surge of
    cool air will freshen the winds east of the northern Bahamas
    Wednesday night and Thursday. Southerly winds will strengthen this
    weekend east of Florida.

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