Atlantic hurricane map

Monday, Oct 22, 2018

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

  1. 000
    AXNT20 KNHC 220004

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    804 PM EDT Sun Oct 21 2018

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2345 UTC.


    An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 63W from 05N-21N,
    moving west at 10-15 kt. Total Precipitable Water imagery shows
    moderate to high moisture content in the wave's environment.
    Scattered showers are present over the Windward Islands from 10N-
    15N between 57W-65W.

    A Central America/EPAC tropical wave extends its axis along is
    along 87W and south of 16N, moving west at 10 kt. The wave
    corresponds with a 700 mb trough, as indicated by model analyses.
    Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the wave axis.


    The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N15W
    to 07N17W. The ITCZ extends from 07N17W to 08N28W, then from
    08N32W to 07N41W, then resumes near 07N44W to 05N53W. Scattered
    moderate convection is noted within 75 nm on either sides of the
    ITCZ between 22W-40W.


    A cold front is over the Gulf waters extending from 27N82W to a
    1016 mb low near 26N95W. A stationary front extends southward from
    the low to 20N97W. A pre-frontal trough is over the SW Gulf from
    21N95W to 18N94W. Scattered moderate convection is noted west of
    93W. 20-30 kt N winds are NW of the fronts. The remainder of the
    Gulf has 10-15 kt easterly winds with mostly fair weather.

    The surface low will persist over the NW Gulf through Tue with
    associated frontal systems.


    Two tropical waves are over the basin. See above for details.

    The East Pacific monsoon trough extends eastward along 09N from
    Costa Rica to northern Colombia near 76W. The tropical wave along
    85W is also interacting with the monsoon trough. Scattered
    moderate to isolated strong convection is over the SW Caribbean
    from 08N-11N between 80W-83W. Farther east, Total Precipitable
    Water imagery shows high moisture content over northeastern
    Venezuela and the extreme southeastern Caribbean. Scattered
    moderate convection is from 09N-12N between 61W-68W.

    Upper-level diffluence is noted along the northern coast of
    Colombia and the SW Caribbean.


    A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N68W to N Florida near
    27N80W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. To the
    east, a surface trough is from 26N59W to 22N61W.

    Of note in the upper levels, a large upper level trough is over
    the W Atlantic N of 27N and W of 70W, supporting the cold front.
    An upper level low is centered over the central Atlantic near
    28N54W. Upper level diffluence E of the low center is producing
    scattered moderate convection from 22N-34N between 49W-53W.

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