Wednesday, Jul 18, 2018

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

  1. 239
    AXNT20 KNHC 181157
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    757 AM EDT Wed Jul 18 2018

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1100 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    SW Caribbean Sea gale warning: A gale goes into effect at 19/0000
    UTC along the coast of Colombia from 11N to 12.5N between 74W and
    76W, with seas of 10 to 13 ft. The gale ends at 19/1200 UTC.
    Please read the High Seas Forecast, under the AWIPS/WMO headers
    HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A tropical wave is nearing the Cabo Verde Islands, with an axis
    extending from 20N20W to 05N23W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt.
    A well defined 700 mb trough exiting the coast of western Africa
    is noted in the model guidance. Satellite imagery shows scattered
    moderate convection from 07N to 10N between 17W and 28W. A major
    outbreak of Saharan Air Layer (SAL) dust envelops the wave
    environment north of 10N as seen in GOES-16 images.

    A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis that extends from
    22N54W to 06N56W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. The wave is
    depicted on GOES-16 RGB imagery as an inverted-V shape envelope of
    broken to overcast stratocumulus clouds covering the area. The
    wave is being intruded upon by Saharan dust limiting significant
    convection from developing near it. Only scattered showers and
    isolated thunderstorms are seen within 240 nm of either side of
    the wave.

    A tropical wave axis is over the western Caribbean that extends
    from 22N82W to S of Panama at 06N81W, moving westward at 15 to 20
    kt. Saharan dust is following in behind this wave axis as observed
    in GOES-16 satellite imagery. Scattered moderate to isolated
    strong convection is S of 12N W of 81W.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough axis extends from W Africa near 20N16W to
    07N28W to 06N37W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that
    the ITCZ begins and continues to 06N37W to 10N55W. The ITCZ then
    resumes west of a tropical wave at 09N58W and continues to South
    America near 08N62W. Aside from convection associated with the
    tropical waves discussed in the tropical waves section, scattered
    moderate convection is from 06N to 10N between 28W and 41W, and
    from 01N to 05N between 41W and 48W.

    ...DISCUSSION...

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    The western periphery of Atlantic high pressure ridging extends
    E to W over the central gulf waters. Light to moderate
    anticyclonic flow prevails over the region, outside of
    thunderstorms. Current NWS mosaic radar and satellite imagery
    show scattered thunderstorms over the northern gulf primarily
    north of 28N E of 92W. This activity is being enhanced by a mid-
    to upper- level trough over and to the NE of the area. The base
    of the trough and associated thunderstorm activity is expected to
    remain over this area for at least the next day or so. Weak high
    pressure is forecast to prevail across the northern gulf waters
    through Thu night. Thereafter, a frontal trough will cross the NE
    gulf, forcing the ridge axis farther south over the SE Gulf.
    Increasing winds are expected over the NE gulf with this trough in
    the area. Another surface trough will move westward off the
    Yucatan Peninsula the next few evenings, enhancing nocturnal
    winds over the eastern section of the SW Gulf.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Please read the Special Features section for details about the
    pulsing gale force winds in the far SW Caribbean near the coast
    of Colombia. Aside from the tropical waves mentioned above, a
    small upper-level low is seen on water vapor imagery over the
    extreme northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula. Mostly fresh E
    winds will continue over the central Caribbean Sea, and strong
    NE-E winds will be over the SW and S central sections of the
    Caribbean, through Thu. Low-cloud streamers with brief isolated
    showers will continue over the far eastern Caribbean through Thu.
    Scattered showers and thunderstorms will again develop over the
    interior sections of Hispaniola this afternoon and Thu afternoon.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A mid- to upper-level trough over the SE United States is helping
    to enhance shower and thunderstorm activity NW of a line from
    31N70W to 25N80W. These thunderstorms will remain active through
    Thu as a portion of the trough moves off the eastern seaboard.
    High pressure will build in the wake of this trough late this week.
    A 1031 mb high well north of the area, centered near 38N41W is
    dominating much of the central and eastern Atlantic discussion
    waters. A large area of Saharan Air Layer (SAL) dust is currently
    over the central Atlantic from 09N to 25N and between 51W and 65W,
    and over the eastern Atlantic S of 25N E of 51W. The dust will
    continue to translate westward for the rest of the week.

    For additional information
    please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

    $$
    MRF/Latto