National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
AXNT20 KNHC 151704
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1204 PM EST Tue Jan 15 2019
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N16W
to 05N22W. The ITCZ continues from 05N22W to the coast of Brazil
near 00N48W. A secondary ITCZ extends from 03N19W to 03S28W to
03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along both ITCZ's
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1029 mb high pressure centered north of the basin extends across
the area with moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds prevailing.
A surface trough is analyzed over the west Gulf from 28N97W to
21N96W. No significant convection is present across the basin at
High pressure will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through
Friday. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will set up across
the western Gulf by Friday night ahead of a strong cold front
forecast to reach the NW Gulf by late Saturday. Gale conditions
are possible behind the front.
In the upper levels, a ridge is in control of the Caribbean, with
subsidence covering the entire basin. Latest scatterometer data
indicates gentle to moderate east winds across eastern and
southern Caribbean, while fresh to strong east winds are off the
coast of Colombia south of 13N between 72W-77W. Scattered showers
are possible over the northwest Caribbean along the coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula and adjacent waters mainly south of 20N and
west of 86W.
Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the south-central
Caribbean Sea through Sat night. Moderate to locally fresh trade
winds will prevail elsewhere.
A cold front extends south across the west Atlantic from 31N60W
to 24N77W. Scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh northerly
winds behind the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
extend 90 nm ahead of the front mainly north of 26N. To the east,
a surface trough extends from 26N55W to 23N56W. Another trough is
to the east, extending from 32N45W to 26N48W. Last trough is
analyzed over the east Atlantic from 27N30W to 23N17W. Scattered
showers are noted along all the troughs.
The cold front over the west Atlantic will reach from 27N65W to
the southern Bahamas on Wednesday, then stall and weaken from
26N65W to Turks and Caicos on Thursday. A reinforcing surge of
cool air will freshen the winds east of the northern Bahamas
Wednesday night and Thursday. Southerly winds will strengthen this
weekend east of Florida.
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