Barbados Meteorological Services
Initial to 4 days discussion based on Satellite imagery,BMS Radar composite,S.P.I.E products,GEM, GFS, WW3, UKMET and BMS WRF modeling, surface and upper air observations, Satellite derived products.
DATE: 20180924 PERIOD: Evening
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TW #41 is located near 55W south of 18N moving west at 10 - 15 knots.
A surface to mid level trough system positioned just to the east of the northern Windwards and Leeward islands, generated cloudy skies, scattered light to moderate showers and isolated thunderstorms across the area. BMS radar composite imagery depicted thunderstorms activity over the aforementioned area. While over Barbados and the southern Windward islands mostly fair conditions prevailed under fair to partly cloudy skies. Further south, over the twin island republic of Trinidad and Tobago, most sunny and warm conditions were also experienced. Similar conditions prevailed across the Guianas, with the exception of Guyana, which encountered some convective activity, however, rainfall amounts were sparse.
Winds across the region remained light peaking at 15 knots over Grenada and 13 knots and less across the remainder of the island chain. Seas remained slight to moderate in open water with swells peaking at near 1.5m.
A surface to mid level confluent pattern on the southern periphery of the high pressure system, generate occasional partly cloudy skies, scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Greater Antilles and the eastern Bahamas during the day. A favourable upper level diffluent pattern over the Windward Passage added support this feature at the lower levels.
While over the south western Caribbean, the monsoon trough in combination with a surface to mid level trough over Panama maintained unsettled weather conditions over the area. The combination of a surface to mid level trough and a surface to mid level confluent pattern over the Yucatan Peninsula also spread cloudy skies and scattered showers over the area.
Tonight: A surface to mid level trough just to the east of the island chain will maintain some measure of instability across Leewards and northern Windwards spreading scattered showers, a few periods of rain and possible thunderstorms. Eventually these conditions will drift over Barbados and the southern Windward islands later in the night through to early Tuesday morning. A favourable upper level diffluent pattern could add support to this feature.
Tuesday: TW #41 will be affecting Barbados and the island chain from early morning. With the favourable upper level diffluent pattern remaining over the region, this will support the development of showers and possible isolated thunderstorm.
Wednesday: Moisture trailing TW #41 will maintain some showers activity across the region, however some fair conditions will also prevail.
Thursday: Remnants of Tropical storm Kirk will be affecting Barbados and the eastern Caribbean. Model data is indicating high moisture amounts and instability across the area. As a result, gusty winds, widespread showers and thunderstorms will be expected.
Friday: Remnants of Tropical storm Kirk will continue to affect the eastern Caribbean. Scattered moderate to heavy showers with higher gust near showers, periods of rain and thunderstorm will be anticipated. There is also the possibility of some flooding in low lying areas
Tonight: A surface to mid level confluent pattern over the Greater Antilles and the eastern Bahamas will continue to generate occasional partly cloudy skies and some shower activity. Similar conditions are expected over the Yucatan Peninsula due to a low to mid level trough over the area. While over the south western Caribbean, the monsoon trough in combination with a surface to mid level trough over Panama will maintain unsettled weather conditions over the area.
Tuesday: The Virgin islands and Puerto Rico will experience some effects from the remnants of TD#11 which will produce cloudy skies with scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms. Elsewhere, no significant change in weather conditions from the previous days is expected.
Wednesday: A surface to mid level confluent pattern will remain across the Greater Antilles and the eastern Bahamas and will continue to generate occasional partly cloudy skies, some showers and possible thunderstorm activity. Unsettled weather conditions will remain over the western and south western Caribbean.
Thursday: No significant change in weather conditions from the previous days is expected. Remnants of Tropical storm Kirk will drift over the eastern Caribbean sea during the night.
Friday: A surface to low level trough (remnants of Kirk) will spread some showers and possible thunderstorms over the Virgin islands and Puerto Rico. While: elsewhere, no significant change in weather conditions from the previous days is expected.