Barbados Meteorological Services
Initial to 4 days discussion based on Satellite imagery,BMS Radar composite,S.P.I.E products,GEM, GFS, WW3, UKMET and BMS WRF modeling, surface and upper air observations, Satellite derived products.
DATE: 20180527 PERIOD: Evening
A Tropical wave positioned along 69/70°W south of 10N moving W at 15 - 20 knots
A Tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic along 52 south of 8N moving W at 15 - 20 knots.
A Tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic along 29/30W south of 12N, moving west at 15 - 20 knots.
During the day the surface to low level high pressure system dominanted the weather conditions over Barbados and the Windward islands. Model data indicated a very dry and stable atmosphere with moisture being confined to the very low levels, around 850mb and below ( 5100 feet and below ) of the atmosphere, as a result mostly fair weather and breezy conditions were experienced. On the other hand, over the Leeward islands a surface to low level convergence pattern forming on the southern periphery of the high pressure system in combination with a favourable upper level divergence flow generated cloudy skies, scattered showers, periods of rain and a few isolated thunderstorms across the area.
Over the Guianas, Cloudy to overcast skies, scattered showers, periods of rain and isolated thunderstorm were experienced due to surface to low level convergence.
The wind across the region ranged from 04 to 20 knots and the seas were moderate in open water ranged from 1.5 to 2.0.
Over the western Caribbean, subtropical storm Alberto generated heavy rainfall and tropical storm conditions across central America, Cuba, the Cayman islands, some parts of Jamaica, the Bahamas and extending over Florida Panhandle. Further to the east , Hispaniola , Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands mostly fair weather conditions prevailed, with a few passing isolated showers being encountered.
Tonight: The surface to low level high pressure system will remain the dominant feature over Barbados and the Windward islands. Model data is indicating a very dry and stable atmosphere with moisture being confined to the very low levels, around 850mb and below ( 5100 feet and below ) as a result mostly fair and breezy conditions are anticipated. On the other hand, over the Leeward islands a surface to low level convergence pattern forming on the southern periphery of the high pressure system in combination with a favourable upper level divergence flow will continue to generate cloudy skies, scattered showers, periods of rain and isolated thunderstorms across the area.
Monday: No significant change in weather conditions from previous day is expected over Barbados and the Windward islands. However, over the Leeward islands, a reduction in moisture will be noticeable resulting in some improvement in weather conditions from previous day. Some scattered showers will still be expected.
Tuesday: No significant change in weather conditions from previous day over Barbados and the Windward islands. However, a mid to upper level trough system just northeast of the Leeward islands, will become elongated in a north east south west orientation. No significant convection is expected as the mid to upper levels are expected to remain relatively dry and stable.
Wednesday: A weak surface will approach the Leeward islands bringing an increase in cloudiness and generating a few scattered showwers during the morning period. While fair weather conditions will prevail over Barbados and the southern Windward islands during the same period. An increase in cloudiness will be noticeable by late evening across the region , however no significant shower activity is anticipated.
Thursday: During the morning fair weather conditions are expected across the region. After midday a tropical wave, presently with axis near 28°W will approach and begin to effect the eastern Caribbean, producing cloudiness and spreading a few scattered showers across the area.
Subtropical Storm Alberto Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
200 PM EDT Sun May 27 2018
...ALBERTO CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
Tonight: Alberto expected to make landfall near Panama city of USA, where heavy rainfall and tropical storm conditions will be likely. Over the northern Bahamas, the majority of Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman islands will encountered similar conditions as moisture associated with Alberto is being dragged northward from the tropics across these areas. While gradual improvement across Belize, Honduras and Mexico will be noticeable. Elsewhere, across the Greater Antilles, mostly fair weather conditions with a few passing showers will prevail.
Monday: Improvement across Mexico, Belize will continue to emerge. While Cuba, Jamaica, Cayman islands and Florida Panhandle will remain under some unstable weather conditions as Alberto will continue its havoc across these parts. Similar conditions from previous day will remain across the rest of the Greater Antilles as the high pressure system will remain dominant.
Tuesday: The Atlantic high pressure system will maintain its dominance across the basin. However a moist and unstable surface to mid level southerly to southeasterly wind flow coupled with favourable upper level outflow, will support moderate to heavy convection across the western Caribbean islands. Elsewhere, mostly fair weather conditions will prevail.
Wednesday: Gradual improvement will continue across the basin as the high pressure system remains dominant.
Thursday: Mostly fair weather conditions will prevail, as a drying out of the atmosphere is noticeable.