Barbados Meteorological Services
Initial to 4 days discussion based on Satellite imagery,BMS Radar composite,S.P.I.E products,GEM, GFS, WW3, UKMET and BMS WRF modeling, surface and upper air observations, Satellite derived products.
DATE: 20190115 PERIOD: Evening
A weak surface to low level ridge pattern dominated the weather conditions across Barbados and the Windwards today. Despite this, partly cloudy to occasionally cloudy skies with a few scattered showers were observed as low level moisture initiated a few showers. Meanwhile, the Leewards and northern Windwards were affected by a surface to low level shearline. Satellite imagery displayed partly cloudy to cloudy conditions while radar reflectivity displayed several echoes across this area. The dry and stable mid levels allowed for no significant convection and as a result shower activity remained brief.
Trinidad and Tobago observed fair to partly cloudy skies as the surface to low level ridge pattern also dominanted. Further to the south, the Guianas observed partly cloudy to cloudy skies with a few scattered showers. In addition, BMS GOES 16 lightning product depicted some lightning activity which indicated the presence of isolated thunderstorms across Suriname and French Guiana. This was a result of low level sea-breeze convergence.
Winds across the region ranged from 9 to 18 knots. While, the seas remained slight to moderate in open water peaking near 2.0m.
Fair to partly cloudy skies were observed across the Greater Antilles including Puerto Rico and Hispaniola as moisture levels remained very low due to an area of dry and stable air on the southwest fringe of the surface to low level ridge. In addition to this, a mid level high pressure system centered over Honduras, maintained these conditions. Further to the west, a cold front affected the northern and central Bahamas as well as central Cuba and the Cayman islands. This feature generated showers as well as partly cloudy to cloudy skies to these areas.
Tonight: Barbados, the central and southern Windwards will be under the influence of the surface to low level ridge pattern. As a result, mostly fair conditions with the chance of an odd isolated shower are expected. In addition, the mid level environment will remain dry and stable as a result of the mid level western Caribbean high pressure system. Further north, the Leewards and northern Windwards will be affected by a weak surface to low level shearline which will generate occasionally cloudy skies and some scattered showers. As this feature moves further westward, these conditions will give way to fair to partly cloudy skies after midnight.
Wednesday: Barbados and the island chain will enjoy fair to partly cloudy skies as a result of the surface to low level ridge pattern. Apart from this, shallow cloud patches embedded within the easterly trades will induce a few brief showers. Although the ridge pattern will be dominant across the southern Windwards, trailing low level moisture from a weak low level trough will impact the area. These islands should anticipate increased cloudiness, brief passing showers as well as breezy conditions.
Thursday: Similar conditions from the previous day will prevail across the island chain. Although the surface to mid level ridge pattern will be dominant, shallow cloud patches will continue to traverse Barbados and the Windwards. Occasional cloudiness and brief isolated showers are the likely result.
Friday: The surface to low level ridge pattern will continue to dominate the weather conditions across the island chain. Fair to partly cloudy skies with a few brief showers are expected as low level clouds continue to move across the region.
Saturday: Shallow clouds patches will continue to move across Barbados and the Windward islands generating a few scattered showers. The Leewards will be under the influence of surface to low level confluencing on the southern periphery of the western Atlantic high pressure system. Occasional cloudiness and scattered showers are anticipated.
Tonight: The cold front will continue move northeastward away from the Bahamas where improving weather conditions are expected. A surface trough is expected to impact Jamaica as well as the Cayman islands generating a few showers there. Finally, the surface to low level shearline that exited the eastern Caribbean will move over Puerto Rico and The Virgin Islands generating partly cloudy to occasionally cloudy skies and some showers.
Wednesday: As the cold front moves further eastward into the central Atlantic, a reinforcing front is expected to develop and affect the northern Bahamas and later central Cuba as it becomes oriented in a northeast- southwest direction. Occasionally cloudiness and a few showers are likely. A shearline is also expected to follow as it develops southwest of the front. This feature is anticipated to bring scattered showers over the southern Bahamas, Turks and Caicos and eastern Cuba. Elsewhere, no significant change is expected. Across Puerto Rico, a surface to low level trough will develop and stall generating partly cloudy to cloudy skies with showers.
Thursday: The reinforcing front is expected to merge with cold front and its shearline spreading showers across eastern Cuba and the southern Bahamas. The trough system which affected Puerto Rico the day before will gradually progress westwards spreading showers across the Dominican Republic. Elsewhere, no change in the overall weather pattern is expected.
Friday: A surface to mid level ridge pattern will become the dominant feature across the basin. The surface to low level trough affecting the Dominican Republic will weaken as the day progresses. However, weak low level troughs embedded within the flow of the high may trigger some brief isolated shower activity.
Saturday: The surface to low level western Atlantic high pressure will continue to dominate. Model data is indicating confluencing on the southern periphery generating brief showers across the Greater Antilles. Elsewhere, no significant change in weather conditions is expected.